林迪效应

The Lindy Effect

The longer something has been in use, the more likely it is to continue being used.

Takeaways

• The Lindy Effect states that if something (a technology, tool, concept) has persisted for a long time, it will likely continue for much longer.
• For developers, Lindy's law is a reminder to invest in timeless skills and proven fundamentals (algorithms, core languages, design principles) rather than chasing every new framework that might be obsolete in a few years.
• Use the Lindy Effect when evaluating technology. Things that have been around for some time stick around longer in the future (i.e., choose boring technology).

Overview

The Lindy Effect turns our intuition about aging on its head. For living creatures, older means less life expectancy. But in technology, it's often the opposite: the longer something has been in use, the more likely it is to continue being used.

Time acts as a filter. Anything irrelevant, flawed, or fragile tends to disappear, while what remains after many years is usually high-quality and valuable.

This principle serves as a reality check against shiny object syndrome. The majority of so-called "innovations" have little to no relevance to contemporary ideas; rather, they reinvent ideas of the past. Truly fundamental ideas in software (algorithms, data structures, protocols, paradigms) change slowly.

Applying Lindy's law means favoring things that have "stood the test of time" and learning languages like Python, Java, or C, as well as algorithms, rather than over-focusing on the hottest new framework.

Examples

COBOL is a language from 1959, over 60 years old, yet it still runs a large amount of the world's finance and government infrastructure. Some estimates suggest 70-80% of all global financial transactions rely on COBOL code in banking systems and mainframes.

Many JavaScript frameworks like AngularJS, Ember.js, and Knockout.js emerged and fell out of favor over the past decade. Yet the underlying language and browser APIs have been around for over 25 years and will continue.

If choosing between learning a cutting-edge framework and SQL, the Lindy approach suggests SQL (from the 1970s) is still highly relevant today and will remain so.

Origins

The term was coined in 1964 by journalist Albert Goldman, named after Lindy's Delicatessen in New York City, a famous hangout for entertainers. Comedians there observed that a Broadway show's longevity predicted its future run length: if a show had lasted X weeks, it could be expected to run another X weeks.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb brought it to a broad audience in his books "The Black Swan" (2007) and "Antifragile" (2012), giving it the name "Lindy Effect" to describe the aging of non-perishable things like books, ideas, technologies, or traditions.